Change or No Change: Reflections on Crime Trends

For today's conversation, Jessica introduces Dr. Jim Austin, the Director of Strategic Initiatives at JFA Institute, to The Den. Together, they discuss and reflect on his studies with observed and forecasted crime rates. The discussion highlights how policymakers and police leadership can analyze the intersection between criminal justice policies, socioeconomic factors, and long-term trends to understand and effectively address crime rates. Throughout the episode, they discuss Dr. Austin's collaboration with Rick Rosenfeld on a group of reports commissioned by the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation. These reports created statistical models for forecasting US crime rates and examined potential policy shifts to reduce the US's high rate of incarceration. They discuss the details of the report and the significance it had on the field as a whole. Dr. Austin also explores the challenges in predicting crime shifts and then taking action to change them with factors including population, age, inflation, household dynamics, and politics.

Topics Covered:

• The typical analyses that Dr. Austin does for corrections and how they have supported crime reform changes
• Breaking down the importance of the forecasting reports Dr. Austin and Rick Rosenfeld collaborated on
• The successful diversion of youth from the juvenile justice system
• How economic, demographic, and political factors relate to crime trends
• The decline in crime rates and the need to rethink police and policymaking staffing and performance over quantity
• Dr. Austin’s perspective on the future of successful long-term policy change

• Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation
• Link to reports